流れって何？
流れとは、どういったものなのか。この疑問に答えられたらノーベル賞を取れるだろう。確実に現実に存在するであろう物理的な流れでさえ、古来から研究されているテーマであるにもかかわらず未解明な点が多いのが現状だ。そんな現状にもかかわらず、あるのかも良くわからない試合での流れを調べてみようなんて発想は烏滸がましいことであるかもしれない。
Game5のZeRoは本当に強いのかの記事の中で、Nairoの試合がフルセットとなる確率が低く、一方的に勝つか負けるかの試合の確率が高い可能性が示唆された。これによってスマブラの試合の流れについて興味を持ち調べてみようと思い立った。試合を見ていて、流れがいい、悪いと感じることは多々あるだろう。スマブラ観戦を楽しむうえで注目するポイントのひとつだ。今回はその試合における流れについて、定量的に評価し存在を確かめることを試みる。
実は試合の流れについて興味を持つ研究者は多く、盛んに研究はおこなわれている。有名なものはGilovich et al. (1985)であろう。簡単に説明すると、バスケットのシュートを例に、成功もしくは失敗が断続的に続くかどうかを統計的に分析している。結果は、統計的に有意な差はなく、流れの存在の証明はできなかったそうだ。
あああああああああああああああああああああ！！！川の流れのように～♪。
流れをどう計測するのか
試合において流れが良いと感じる瞬間はどんなときだろうか。2タテ、早期撃墜、メテオなどが思い浮かぶが、そのような試合を探すのはあまりにも骨が折れる。そこで、データを集めやすいゲームカウントの推移に注目してみた。
最初1ゲームをとった後に次のゲームを取り返されると、なんとなく流れが悪くなるイメージがある。そこで、ゲームカウントが1-1になったとき、2ゲーム目で勝ったほうが3ゲーム目も勝つ確率を調べてみることにした。要するに、負け、勝ち、となった後に勝つ確率が50％を超えれば流れが存在するといってもいいのではないか、ということである。十分なサンプルをとり、流れが存在しないのであれば勝率は50％に収束するはずである。まあ、結局はGilovichとやっていることと本質的には同じだ。以下に表を示しておく。
超有能サイト、
smash.gg | Empowering esports communities
から、ゲームカウントの推移が記録されている試合を探し、確率を計算した。試合のサンプル数は122である。計算に使用した大会を以下に示す。
| GENESIS 5 |
| Frostbite 2018 |
| 2GG: Hyrule Saga |
| CEO 2018 |
| 2GGC: MkLeo Saga |
| 2GG Championship |
| 2GGC: Fire Emblem Saga |
| The Big House 7 |
| GameTyrant Expo 2017 |
| Shine 2017 |
| 2GGC: SCR Saga |
| DreamHack Atlanta 2017 |
計測結果
勝率は悲しみの約48％であった。有意な差とは言えない。むしろ勝率は逆に低かった。正直に言うとこれは予想通りの結果で、読んでいる方は途中でお気づきかもしれないが、競技シーンにおけるスマブラ大会のルールではキャラやステージの選択上、前のゲームで負けたほうが次のゲームで基本的には有利なルールである。なので、サンプル数122で心が折れたので真実はわからないが、ゲーム2で勝った後、ゲーム3で勝率が低いことがむしろ真の可能性が高い。キャラやステージのカウンターピックが勝率の差に出ていると考えるのが自然だろう。今回の証明方法自体に欠陥がある。なんとか50％に乗れば、流れがあると消極的に言ってもいいのではないかとは思っていたが、そうはいきそうもなく、途中で泣いてしまったのであきらめた。
今から泣きます・・・。
所感
スマブラの試合において流れの定量的解析を試みようとしたが、全然思ったようにはいかずあまりにも難しかった。ルール上、前の試合で負けたほうが有利になるので評価が簡単にできない。カウンターピックによる勝率の補正などができればよいが、そんな補正モデルを作るので一苦労だ。きっとそんな補正をしたところでちょうど50％になるのが目に見えている。流れは本当に存在しないのだろうか。
やはり一流の研究者が取り組んできていまだ答えの出ていない問題とあって、思い付きでどうにかなるようなものではなく、非常に難しい。試合の流れの存在を証明するために、勝ち負けが断続的に続くかどうかに注目すること自体がナンセンスなのではないかと思ったりする。もっと短い周期で流れは変化していて、長い周期で計測してしまうと消えてしまうものなのではないか…。それって結局流れはないってことなのだろうか…。プレイヤーの精神状態との関係も考える必要がある気がする。色々考えると訳が分からなくなってきてしまったが、何か新しい発想が必要なことは間違いない。
頭がおかしくなりそうです。助けてください。
コメント
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