撃墜技比率のプレイヤーによる違いに関する研究
指導教員 シーク、ベヨネッタ
スマブラ大学大学院 撃墜技研究科 シーク専攻 うじこ
1.緒論
1.はじめに
スマブラにおける撃墜という要素は、格闘ゲームのような殴り合う対戦ゲームにおいて独特な要素で、試合の内容を決定づける要素である。スマブラの試合を見る際、誰しもが撃墜のシーンに注目し、そこには様々なドラマが生まれる。よって、スマブラの試合のデータを解析しようと思ったときに、撃墜に注目するのは自然な流れだ。また撃墜技というのは、比較的計測、解析も容易で、読者も理解しやすい利点がある。そこで筆者は撃墜技に着目しデータ解析を行っている。
1.2先行研究および本研究の目的
世界スマブラレポ (2016)では、クラウドの上位プレイヤーに対して撃墜技の比率について調べ、プレイヤーによって比率に大きく違いがあることを示し、”一般に適度な数の撃墜方法を織り交ぜることで相手に予測されにくくかつ自分の中で一貫した戦略が立てやすいというのは言えるのではないだろうか“と述べている。
Shogun(2018)は、フォックスについて、対ゼロスーツサムス、ロゼッタ＆チコにおける撃墜技の比率と、撃墜状況の比率の調査を行った。そのなかで、”上位プレイヤーとそうでないプレイヤーに分けた上で撃墜手段にはどのような差があるか”に注目するのもよいのではないかと提案している。
Ujiko(2018a)では、Shogun(2018)を参考に、MkLeoのマルスについて、対シーク、ベヨネッタにおける撃墜技の比率と、撃墜状況の比率の調査を行い、撃墜技のバランスと勝率の関係を定量的に評価することを試みた。その結果、勝率が高いほうが撃墜技のバランスが良いという結果になったが、勝率の差の小ささとサンプル数の少なさについては疑問が残る。
そこで本研究では、する氏とShogun(2018)の提案を参考に、同キャラ使いのプレイヤーによる撃墜技比率の違いを調査し、撃墜技のバランスと勝率の関係を定量的に評価することを目的とした。
2.データ収集、解析条件
2.1使用した動画
使用した動画のURLを付録Bに示す。
2.2解析条件
表1に解析条件を示す。今回の解析では、VoidとKarnaの二人のシークプレイヤーに対して調査を行った。対戦相手のキャラはベヨネッタとした。VoidとKarnaを選択した理由は、動画の豊富さに加え、比較的勝率に差があるのではないかと予想したからである。対戦相手にベヨネッタを選択した理由は、上位キャラであることと、動画が豊富であるからである。撃墜のサンプル数は100である。データ収集は、撃墜技の種類だけでなく、その撃墜技がどの状況で当てられた技なのかも記録した。状況の場合分けはShogun(2018)を参考に、差し合い、崖上がり狩り、着地狩り、復帰阻止の4つとした。Shogun(2018)でも述べられているが、撃墜技をこの4つのどこに分類するかには主観が入るため、正確な分類をすることはできないが、今回は議論を進めるために目をつぶることとする。
3解析結果
3.1撃墜技の比率
図.1にVoidとKarnaの撃墜技の比率を示す。比率が5％以下の技はその他にまとめた。図.1よりVoid、Karnaともにつかみからの展開による撃墜が一番多いことがわかる。また、Voidのほうが撃墜技のバランスが良いことが分かる。
3.2撃墜状況の比率
図.2にVoidとKarnaの撃墜状況の比率を示す。Void、Karnaともに撃墜状況で一番多いのは、差し合いにおける撃墜であった。これは、Shogun(2018)とUjiko(2018a)と一致する傾向である。また、KarnaはVoidに比べ、崖上がりの比率が高いことがわかる。Shogun(2018)とUjiko(2018a)と今回の結果から見るに、差し合いにおける比率が一番高いこと以外は、プレイヤーとキャラの影響で大きく変わってくることが示唆された。
4.考察
4.1 指標Uの定義
この章では、撃墜技のバランスの良さと勝率との相関関係について考察を行う。勝率は簡単に定量的に評価できるが、撃墜技のバランスの良さを定量的に評価するには何らかの指標の導入が必要である。そこで、撃墜技のバランスを定量的に評価するため、以下の式で定義される指標U(Ujiko)を導入する。
$$U=\frac{変動係数^{(5)}}{撃墜技の種類}$$
統計に疎い人のために説明をしておくと、変動係数とは、数がどれだけばらついてるかの指標である。要するに、撃墜技が偏っていると大きくなる数字である。変動係数のみで評価を行うことも考えたが、変動係数のみだと撃墜技の種類の豊富さの情報が入りにくい。そこで試験的に変動係数を撃墜技の種類で除している。これについては妥当かどうかの深堀りした考察を行う必要性がある。とりあえず、Uが小さければ小さいほど、撃墜技のバランスが良く、撃墜の選択肢が多いと考えてもらえば問題ない。しかしこの指標にはいろいろな欠陥がある。その例を付録Aに示しておく。
4.2 結果
表2に、VoidとKarnaの各数値を示す。ここでの勝率とは、試合における勝率ではなく、ゲームカウントで計算した勝率である。表2より、Uが小さいVoidのほうが勝率が高くなっていることが分かる。これは、Ujiko(2018a)と同様の傾向である。対戦相手が違うなどの疑問は残るが、撃墜技のバランスが良いほど勝率は高いようである。勝率とUには負の相関があるようだ。Uの絶対値についてはプレイヤーとキャラに依存すると予想されるので、Ujiko(2018a)と単純に比較するのは難しい。
5.まとめ
本研究では、VoidとKarnaの対ベヨネッタにおける撃墜技の種類と撃墜状況について、動画からデータを収集し調査を行った。調査の結果、以下のことがわかった。
・撃墜状況の比率において、Karnaのほうが崖上がり狩りの比率が高く、キャラが一緒でもプレイヤーによる違いがあった。
・撃墜技のバランスの良いVoidのほうが勝率が高かった。
6.所感
撃墜技のバランスがいいほど勝率が高いのではないかという仮説は、普通に考えたら当たり前の仮説といえる。撃墜技のバランスが良ければ、対戦相手は撃墜拒否が難しくなり、撃墜される可能性が高くなるのは当然である。本論文は当たり前のことを定量的に証明しようとしているに過ぎない。しかし、このような定量的なアプローチによって、プレイヤーの特徴を明確にすることができる。プレイヤーの特徴を把握することができれば、長所をどうやって伸ばすか、どうやって弱点を克服するか、プレイヤーをどう対策するかといったときに道が見えやすくなる。本論文のようなアプローチが、競技シーンのプレイヤーに少しでも参考になれば筆者としてはこの上のない喜びである。
7.謝辞
感謝。
前回の記事でNatureかScienceのどちらかに投稿しようか迷っていると相談しましたが、誰もアドバイスをくれませんでした。なんででしょうか？
付録A おまけ
僕のまあまあ強いサブキャラ、シークの撃墜技の比率です。U=0ですよ。バランスがいいですね。
欠陥のある指標です。
付録B 使用した動画URL
動画多すぎるので省略します。知りたい方はURL送るので連絡ください。
コメント
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